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Water AlliesTier 1
at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals
decks
6
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
19-15-5
overall winrate
55.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322
· median 1328
· range 1162–1420
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1233
Q3 1413
1689
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Slimes | 13.1% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 11 | 9-2-0 | 81.8% | 73.3% | 58.8% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
